Sometimes, it’s all about the moves you don’t make.
For over 25 years, I have spent a significant portion of the offseason creating my own projections. My 2024 projections are firmly in place, and several players sit much lower in my final analysis than they do in the Yahoo! consensus rankings. These men won’t be anywhere near my 2024 rosters, and I urge you to give them a second look before clicking on their names during your draft.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Yahoo ranking: QB7 vs. My ranking: QB10
I’m fine with drafting Murray as a low-end QB1 this year, but I’m also realistic about what he has (and hasn’t) accomplished during his initial five seasons. The Oklahoma alum has never thrown for 4,000 yards and has a career-high of 26 TD passes. On the rushing side, he produced memorable 2020 numbers (819 yards, 11 scores) but did not reach 500 yards or exceed five TDs in any other season.
Murray has a good set of weapons at his disposal this season, but it’s still not a group that ranks among the best in the NFL. I can’t see the logic for ranking him ahead of Jordan Love, who was dynamite in his first year as a starter, or Dak Prescott, who has been a top passer for several seasons. And ranking Murray ahead of Joe Burrow makes me think that we’ve forgotten how good Burrow is.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Yahoo ranking: RB4 vs. My ranking: RB10
Taylor should finish among the 2024 leaders in rushing yards, but beyond that component of fantasy production, there are many things working against him. The 25-year-old has never been a stellar pass catcher (career high 40 receptions), and there is plenty of data to show that speedy QBs such as Anthony Richardson suppress RB passing volume due to their penchant for using their feet rather than dumping off the ball when their primary options are covered.
Richardson is also sure to siphon red-zone touches from Taylor, as he has both the size and speed to do an impression of Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the goal line. At Taylor’s lofty ADP, managers should demand that their running backs are more involved in the passing game and near the end zone.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Yahoo ranking: RB29 vs. My ranking: RB34
Robinson is a poor man’s version of the aforementioned Jonathan Taylor, and he finds his name on this list for the same reasons. Expected to be Washington’s lead back, Robinson has a decent floor. But his ceiling is too low to chase in the middle rounds of drafts. The 25-year-old did not reach 800 rushing yards in either of his initial two seasons and has averaged a pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry.
Robinson will need to significantly improve as a rusher in order to have a fantasy impact since the Commanders brought in Austin Ekeler for pass-catching duties and speedy rookie QB Jayden Daniels more likely to take off and run than to dump off the ball to his safety valves.
Finally, Robinson could have his touchdown total muted by Daniels’ ability to take the ball into the end zone on his own.
Wide receivers
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Yahoo ranking: WR11 vs. My ranking: WR23
Why are we excited about Olave? Is it his nine career TDs in 31 games? Is it his career-best 1,123 yards from last season? Is it the low odds of the Saints improving their passing game after making virtually no changes to their personnel?
Alright, I’ll stop with the sarcastic comments. Derek Carr is one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL, and New Orleans doesn’t have anyone to challenge him.
The Saints have a weak offensive line and are below-average at running back and tight end. In summary, Olave is a good player in an offense that otherwise stinks. The Ohio State alum will get his 1,000 yards, but his TD total will be low, and he lacks the support to have a breakout season.
I’ll check back in on Olave in 2025, once the Saints overhaul their offense.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Yahoo ranking: WR20 vs. My ranking: WR31
When at his best, Pittman is a target hog who achieves fantasy value through elite volume. But I’m not sure that the volume will be there with Anthony Richardson under center. After all, we don’t have a significant track record between the two players, as Pittman spent most of last season catching passes from Gardner Minshew.
With a career mark of 10.9 yards per catch, Pittman will need over 90 catches to be a 1,000-yard receiver, and the odds of him reaching a lofty yardage total such as 1,200 yards are especially low. On the scoring side, the 26-year-old has recorded just 15 touchdowns in 62 career games, and he is unlikely to score at a higher rate now that the Colts backfield includes two elite options in Richardson and Jonathan Taylor.
Tight end
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Yahoo ranking: TE10 vs. My ranking: TE12
I don’t have a major problem with Njoku’s Yahoo! ranking, but I want to highlight him as someone I don’t want to draft this year. Last season, the University of Miami alum did most of his damage with Joe Flacco under center. Njoku’s three best yardage totals were in the five games started by Flacco, and he scored four of his six TDs under Flacco’s leadership.
The 28-year-old didn’t accomplish anything of note with Deshaun Watson, and he will have to fight for Watson’s attention after the Browns traded for wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in the offseason. I would rather draft Pat Freiermuth or Brock Bowers, who both sit multiple spots behind Njoku in the Yahoo! consensus rankings.
